By David Valente
Thankfully the primary calendar slows down here for the next few weeks. Tomorrow marks the last multi-state primary for the GOP for over a month when they constest 5 states on April 26. The Democrats will have 3 caucuses on Saturday and then wait until April 26 multi-stat primaries. In the mean time 2 large prizes will await the candidates, single state primaries in Wisconsin on April 5 and New York on April 19. So let’s take a look at Western Tuesday and see how I think this contests will shake out. After, I will look at my Other Tuesday primary predictions, I had a decent night except Missouri and that pesky Northern Mariana Islands. Without further adieu, the 3 states, & 1 territory Western Tuesday…
American Samoa: GOP only caucus with 9 uncommitted delegates
GOP: Trump won the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands and their 9 delegates. I am not comparing Samoans and Northern Mariana Islanders but since this vote counts as much as their November vote (which is to say not at all) I will go with Trump here. Again 9 folks from an island paradise win a no-expense paid trip to Cleveland in July!
Arizona: GOP winner take all primary with 58 delegates/Democrats proportional primary with 85 delegates
GOP: Trump has had decent polling here and he has the backing of fellow fascist shart stain Sheriff Joe Arpaio so he looks on track to pull all 58 delegates despite finishing under 50%.
Democrats: Hillary has been polling around 20% ahead of Sanders which continues a trend of high minority southern and Western states going for Clinton. The West is not as bad as the South for Sanders but Bernie needs large wins in delegate rich states which he has not had much luck with yet. Hillary will win, take around 60% of the pledged delegates and at least 85% of the super-delegates.
Idaho: Democratic only proportional caucus with 27 delegates
Democrats: Sanders has had a good run in recent caucuses and I think this continues. Idaho is a solid GOP state as such only has 4 additional super-delegates which is fewer than for American Samoa. Bernie can gain a few delegates here but not enough to counter Clinton’s win in Arizona.
Utah: GOP proportional primary with 40 delegates/Democrats proportional primary with 37 delegates
GOP: That there are more GOP delegates available than the Democrats speaks to the strength of the GOP in the state. Ted Cruz has performed well with people of the Mormon faith. This will guarantee the victory for Cruz on Tuesday though he will lose ground because of the proportional nature of this primary.
Democrats: Sanders led by 8% the most recent poll but with a small sample size and having been conducted over several days the Margin of Error was 7, I think Sanders is leading but much closer than the 8%. I also think he will win but get little more than a split of the small haul of delegates. Clinton holds 2 of 4 super-delegates.
On Tuesday we had several states go to the polls for Other Tuesday. The results knocked out Marco Rubio, but gave John Kasich reason to continue. Besides Rubio, Ted Cruz had an awful night, not picking up a state, he fell 70 more delegates behind Trump and John Kasich remains in the race. I predicted the Democratic and Republican winners in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina. I missed the Democratic and Republican races in Missouri by .2% each. The loss on the GOP side was much more costly as the .2 percent meant Cruz losing all delegates to Trump. For Sanders, the loss was costly since it meant he went 0 for 5 on Tuesday. I also missed on the Northern Marian Islands because I had no idea which way they would go. Overall 8 of 11 primaries called correctly was a good night.
I would be remiss to not mention the 2 Libertarian Party primaries on Tuesday. Since LP has major party status in North Carolina and Missouri they have to have a primary. I am not a fan of LP primaries since it is getting the tax payers to pay for an intra-party squabble. In North Carolina, Gary Johnson won 42% of the vote, no other candidate picked up more than 6% including rival Austin Peterson only pulling in 3%. It was expected that Peterson would fare better in his home base of Missouri but he finished second to Uncommitted by 11% (40-29). There will be 1 more primary before the convention in May. actually the primary will occur during the convention in Orlando. California will win the award for wasted tax payer money when it holds its primary on June 7, after the LP picks its nominee.