Meh Tuesday Preview And a Weekend Review

By David Valente

Tomorrow does not get a flashy name, but it might get an big say in how at least one party’s nomination shakes out. With only 4 states going to the polls tomorrow, here is a preview of Meh Tuesday. The Democrats are only contesting 2 states; Michigan and Mississippi. The GOP contest those states as well as Hawaii and Idaho.

Hawaii  19 delegates in GOP only Caucus
GOP: I must say, I hate caucuses, of the 2 things I would love seeing changed for 2020, it would be ending caucuses and shock collars to enforce time limits in debates. There is nothing in the way of polling out there, and there are like 19 Republicans in Hawaii which mean each will get to take a fantastic no expenses paid summer vacation to Cleveland. WE’RE NOT DETROIT! Anyway, I will give Trump an edge in this one. WE’RE NOT DETROIT!

Idaho 32 delegates in GOP only primary
GOP: The previous poll indicated Trump with a 12 point lead in the middle of February. I think the race has tightened between Trump and Cruz. I believe the deciding factor tomorrow will be who the state’s substantial Mormon population side with. I think Ted Cruz will pull a narrow victory and continue his momentum over the last week.

Michigan 148 delegates in Democratic Party 59 delegates in the GOP Primary
GOP: This is the biggest prize of the night for the GOP will see Trump take the win. What you will need to watch for is the relative strength of John Kasich, as a border state governor should be competitive. Recent polls have Cruz and Kasich neck and neck. If Cruz tops Kasich, it is a bad sign for Ohio next week.
Democrats: As big as Michigan is for the GOP it is far bigger for the Democrats. Clinton has held her own in the state especially since the Flint Water Crisis has highlighted her advantage with minority voters. She will win a comfortable victory. This sets up Super-Duper Tuesday for Clinton, while not passing the official threshold, gaining a sufficient lead to get a contest ending endorsement from President Obama.

Mississippi 41 delegates in the Democratic Primary 40 delegates in the GOP Primary
GOP: Donald Trump should get the victory here, Mississippi has more in common with Alabama than Louisiana. Watch for Cruz to perform better than his Super Tuesday performance in Alabama.
Democrats: Hillary has been killing it in the south averaging over 70% in the south. This will continue.

On Saturday, I offered my PDOMA predictions on the weekend contests. 

Kansas GOP Miss Democrats: Hit
GOP: Ted Cruz stunned a lot of people with a large 25% victory in a state the last poll had him down 6% to Trump the week prior. Cruz is becoming the candidate of the heartland with 4 of his 5 wins squarely in the middle of the country.
Democrats: As expected Sanders won the white, caucus state of Kansas.

 Kentucky GOP Hit
GOP: Trump got the victory, but I think the news is Kasich, from neighboring Ohio, finished 4th with only 14% of the vote. He did we in the border counties in the Cincinnati area but did not do well in the rest of the state.

Louisiana GOP & Democrat Hit
GOP: I correctly predicted the Trump win and the Cruz surge.
Democrats: This was a no doubt Dixie win for Clinton.

Maine GOP Miss Democrats Hit
GOP: This was possibly the most interesting result of the weekend. Ted Cruz got a comfortable win in the caucus and stopped Trump’s run of New England state dominance. Of the 2 losses for Trump, I would be far more concerned with this one because this was a win well outside Cruz’s comfort zone.
Democrats: Like Kansas, Sanders won the white caucus state of Maine.

Nebraska Democrats Hit
Democrats: Lather, rinse, repeat in a caucus win for Sanders.

Puerto Rico GOP Hit
GOP: Marco Rubio got a much needed and large win in Puerto Rico and took all 23 delegates. It only mitigates the beating he took on Saturday but may make him feel a little better about his chances in Florida with a sizable Puerto Rican population. But he still has a lot of work before next Tuesday’s Florida Primary.

I went 3-2 in predicting the GOP contests this weekend. I had predicted Trump taking all 4 Saturday contests and Rubio winning Sunday. On the Democratic side I was 4-0 during the weekend contests.

That’s it for now, stay tuned later this week and I will review my predictions from Tuesday.

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David Valente
Damn Fine Libertarian
The real life Ron Swanson, I went to work for the federal government before my libertarian awakening. Nothing makes you more of a libertarian than working for the government. I tend to write about police abuse and accountability issues, though I will tackle any issue if it tickles my fancy. I will also make light of damn near anything. It is only too soon if it is before it happens. I am a big L libertarian serving as a State Central Committee member for Libertarian Party the Commonwealth of Virginia. You can find my work here, or my personal site, Damn Fine Libertarian, at http://damnfinelibertarian.wordpress.com

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